Erik ten Hag is right about Manchester United - but for all the wrong reasons

If the past week was a litmus test of Erik ten Hag’s future at Manchester United, then the picture is looking bleak.

Last Sunday’s FA Cup semi-final clash against Coventry City kicked off a seven-day period in which United had three must-win games. Excluding the lottery of a penalty shootout in the aforementioned Wembley clash, they won one. All three opponents will likely be in the Championship come summer.

Victory at home to Sheffield United on Wednesday was far harder than it should have been, United reliant once again on captain Bruno Fernandes to pull them out of the mire with a goal and assist to turn 2-2 into 4-2. That they even conceded twice to the only Premier League team averaging less than a goal a game said it all.

The Premier League’s second-bottom team, Burnley, were at Old Trafford Saturday and deserving of the late penalty Zeki Amdouni converted to make it 1-1. Vincent Kompany’s struggling Clarets enjoyed more possession, completed more passes and had 16 shots on goal.

After the FA Cup win over Coventry, a statistic doing the rounds on social media revealed that United had conceded 358 shots across all domestic competitions in 2024 - comfortably the most among Premier League teams. They conceded a further 26 against Sheffield United and Burnley to widen the gap. A further 18 for Coventry at Wembley means that in three games against all-but guaranteed second-tier opposition, United have conceded 44 shots and six goals. It is not a good look for a manager already under pressure.

"We are one of the most dynamic and entertaining teams in the league at this moment," Ten Hag told Match of the Day after seeing his side draw against Burnley on Saturday. "We are creating loads of chances by playing good football. Every team gives up opportunities. But when it is up to us, it is weird."

Ten Hag is right that United are among the most entertaining teams to watch, of that there is little doubt. Since the turn of the year, their games have averaged exactly four goals a game and that has gone up to 4.4 over the last 10. Comebacks and late winners have been commonplace, the FA Cup win over Coventry typifying the current sense of chaos.

But that Wembley win also summed up the key issue for Ten Hag. United were 3-0 up against second-tier opposition as the 70th minute passed, and yet contrived to concede three times including a 95th-minute penalty. They were fortunate to see Victor Torp’s extra-time winner ruled out for a tight offside.

Sloppy goals conceded against Sheffield United made a game against the league’s bottom-placed team a difficult one, while Andre Onana’s clumsy collision with Amdouni allowed Saturday’s equaliser. These games shouldn't have seen thrilling finishes, they should have all been over with time to spare.

Ten Hag will point towards the obvious mitigating factors, and that he has just one fit central defender is notable. But Harry Maguire and Casemiro should be more than capable as a partnership while Onana was hailed among Europe’s best goalkeepers at Inter last season.

United supporters are not hesitant to make their feelings known and boos echoed around Old Trafford on Saturday. The removal of Kobbie Mainoo over Christian Eriksen drew groans and the full-time whistle brought with it audible jeers. They have seen their side stumble against three very beatable outfits.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe has seen it too and United’s new co-owner must surely be weighing up his options ahead of summer. Ten Hag has been backed massively and after the promise of last season’s Carabao Cup and third-placed finish, has overseen a year of regression.

The Dutchman has spent more than £400million but many of his signings - and they are mostly his signings - have underwhelmed. Further investment is needed this summer and many of Ten Hag’s failures could be moved on.

Ratcliffe’s vision of the club is clear and while entertaining football is a priority, it should not come at the cost of success. United have been a great watch for the neutral this season but are on course for one of their worst campaigns in recent memory. Anything less than 10 points from their final four games would see a lower final tally than David Moyes in 2013/14.

Points dropped on Saturday means it is virtually impossible for United to qualify for the Champions League. To do so, they must win all of their remaining games, while hoping Aston Villa lose all of theirs and there is a 20-goal swing. For all of the entertaining football, that is no place to be in.