The battle between Bournemouth and Celtic stars that will determine Scotland’s Euros destiny

The equation for Sunday evening’s match is straightforward enough: Scotland have to win if they want any chance of making the knock-out rounds at the European Championship for the first time in their history. Standing in the way are Hungary, whose own hopes of escaping the group stage are extremely slim but who nevertheless present formidable opposition – prior to June, they had been unbeaten in 14 straight games. And they will very likely throw everything they have at the Scottish defence.

With a goal difference of -4, Hungary will have to hammer the Scots to have any chance of emerging from Group A as one of the four best third-placed teams, and may miss out even if they do pepper Angus Gunn’s net with goals. That could make this an open and aggressive affair, with both teams desperate for a win – and there are two key battles which will determine whether Hungary can get what they want from this game, or whether Scotland can repel them to set up their own shot at the last 16.

The first, and perhaps more obvious of the two, is the fight for space in front of the Scottish defence. Against Germany, Scotland repeatedly permitted Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz large swathes of room in front of the penalty area thanks to poor alignment between the defence (set up in a low block) and the midfield (too high to supplement the deep back five but not high enough to apply pressure to Toni Kroos). Do the same against Hungary, and they would be asking for trouble.

Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai and Freiburg’s Roland Sallai play the Musiala and Wirtz roles for the Hungarians and are perhaps their two most capable and dangerous players. Give them space to shoot or play cute passes and Scotland will have major problems. They did tighten up this area against Switzerland, getting Billy Gilmour and Callum McGregor much closer to the back three, but that is a trick they will have to repeat again. This is Hungary’s greatest strength, and if they can bring it to bear they will most likely win.

The other scrap that will settle Scotland’s fate comes down their right flank. Hungary have an imbalanced formation in attack with left wing-back Milos Kerkez pushing up to support the attack frequently while the right-back (either Attila Fiola or Bendegúz Bolla) sets up far more defensively.

Hungary cross more frequently and generate more chances from their left wing. In their eventual 2-0 defeat to Germany, they put six crosses into the box from Kerkez’s side and two from the right. Against Switzerland, they crossed 12 times from the left four times from the right – a pretty clear pattern with a three-to-one bias towards balls coming in from that left wing.

That means that one of Hungary’s best and best-known players – Bournemouth full-back Kerkez – is not only likely to be influential and key to Hungary’s build-up but also to come into direct confrontation with the player who has, arguably, been Scotland’s weakest link at the tournament thus far, Celtic right-back Anthony Ralston.

Ralston, who started just six Scottish Premier League matches for the Bhoys last season, has been parachuted into the starting line-up after injuries to Nathan Patterson and Aaron Hickey and has found it tough going, struggling badly to keep up with the admittedly imperious Germans before making the mistake which allowed Xherdan Shaqiri in to score his customary screamer for the Swiss.

If Ralston has another rough ride, then Scotland will have another major problem on their hands. Kerkez has, so far in his career, not generated huge amounts of production and the accuracy of his crosses and final ball are questionable, but he has pace and strong dribbling skills and if left unchecked will swing a lot of balls into the Scottish box as well as creating space for the more polished Sallai and Szoboszlai.

It would also be no surprise to see the Hungarians run back the strategy they adopted in the opening game against Switzerland, which saw them group the two attacking midfielders together towards the left to double-up on what they presumably perceived as a weak spot in the Swiss line. Against Germany, Szoboszlai was sent to the right flank to balance the attack a little more evenly and with a counter-attack focussed game plan that made more sense, but they may well look to team Kerkez, Sallai and Szoboszlai together against Ralston and Jack Hendry on the Scottish right. Given performances so far, that is a battle Scotland will not be favourites to win.

So if Hungary do go down that route again, it will be essential that the midfield provide the required cover. They will have chances of their own to attack down the left, where Andrew Robertson will likely be given freedom to get forward, but the Scottish right looks like it will be a critical defensive battle that has to be won. That may mean keeping Gilmour or McGregor in deeper positions to add cover, or it may mean shuttling Grant Hanley across to match numbers. The latter solution could leave Scott McKenna (the likely replacement for Kieran Tierney) isolated if Hungary can get the ball across to the other side quickly, but would add experience and numbers to a weak area that needs to be shored up.

There are many other things Scotland need to get right. For starters, they need to find a way to score goals of their own and they will likely need Scott McTominay, Che Adams and John McGinn to be at their sharpest going forward. They will need someone to be the attacking spark they have lacked all too often over the last year or so. They will need plenty to go right – but if they don’t get that battle between their right and Hungary’s left exactly right, they will very likely lose.